Socioeconomics Background History Page

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== GCMRC Socioeconomics Program: A Brief History == (Credits: Helen Fairley)

1996 –The Record of Decision (ROD) for the 1995 Environmental Impact Study (EIS) on Operations of Glen Canyon Dam is published.

  • The analysis of economic effects to hydropower from changes to dam operations forms a significant component of the 1995 EIS. In addition to the hydropower analyses undertaken for the EIS, the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES) program sponsors several independent socioeconomic research projects leading up to publication of the 1995 EIS and 1996 ROD. Key studies completed for the EIS include the following:

Title: River Resource Management in the Grand Canyon

  • Year: 1996
  • Authors: National Research Council
  • GCMRC Library Call Number: 120.01 ENV-2.00 G558 23918

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Title: Glen Canyon Dam Releases and Downstream Recreation: An analysis of user preferences and economic values

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1995 – The Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) is officially established in November, 1995.

  • Dr. David Garrett is appointed as the first Chief of the GCMRC. A professor of economics and former dean of Northern Arizona University’s School of Forestry, Dr. Garrett fills the economist role at GCMRC during the first three years of GCMRC’s existence.

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  • 1998-1999 - An independent review of the GCMRC strategic plan is conducted by the National Research Council.
  • NRC notes the lack of socioeconomic elements in the plan and discusses the need for this information (see pp. 109-114 of the following report):
  • Title: Downstream : Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
  • Year: 1999
  • Authors: National Research Council
  • GCMRC Library Call Number: 120.01 ENV-2.00 G558d
  • Link: http://www.gcmrc.gov/library/reports/Adaptive_Management/NRC1999.pdf

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  • 1998 – Dr. Garrett retires and is replaced by Dr. Barry Gold, the GCMRC’s biology program manager.
  • Dr. Gold transfers responsibility for socioeconomic research to GCMRC’s sociocultural program.
  • 1999-2002 –GCMRC’s Sociocultural Program manager, Ruth Lambert, initiates several socioeconomic studies through contracts and agreements with outside economists
  • Specific focus is placed on studies documenting economic effects to recreation and hydropower from the 2001 Low Summer Steady Flow (LSSF) Experiment.
  • The following publications and unpublished reports are produced during this period:

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  • (See also the following synthesis of results of the LSSF experiment:
  • Ralston, B.E., 2011, Summary report of responses of key resources to the 2000 Low Steady Summer Flow experiment, along the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, *Arizona: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1220, 129 p.
  • Link(s): http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1220/
  • 2003 – Ruth Lambert resigns, and Helen Fairley is hired to lead GCMRC’s Sociocultural Program
  • When Fairley arrives at GCMRC, the budget for Fiscal Year 2004 is already planned and does not include funding for recreation or socioeconomic research.
  • Dr. Denny Fenn, the third Chief of GCMRC (2002-2003), advises Fairley to evaluate stakeholder interest in pursuing additional socioeconomic research in future years.

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  • 2005, Spring – GCMRC conducts a “knowledge assessment” workshop
  • to examine what is known about dam-controlled flow effects to all classes of resources, including hydropower and recreation.
  • Workshop participants conclude that the direction of effect to hydropower value is known for different flows but not the magnitude of those effects.
  • Magnitude is uncertain because the model used by Western Area Power Administration (Western) to estimate economic values for hydropower under varying flow regimes is unknown (i.e., the model is not published or publically available for independent peer-review.)
  • Workshop participants conclude that the magnitude of economic effects to recreation and non-use values are somewhat known from studies conducted in the mid-1980s and early 1990s, but these studies are 10-20 years out of date:

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See also: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/05nov29/Attach_09.pdf

  • 2005, Summer – An independent panel is convened by GCMRC’s Sociocultural Program manager to review monitoring protocols and research needs related to recreation.
  • The panel’s final report includes several recommendations for improving socioeconomic information related to recreational use of the river.
  • The final report can be found at: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/05nov29/Attach_01a.pdf
  • 2005-2006 – At the request of the AMWG, Dr. Garrett (in his capacity as Executive Director of the GCDAMP Science Advisory Board) convenes a Science Planning Group (SPG) composed of Technical Work Group (TWG) members and GCMRC scientists for the purpose of developing a new experimental science plan.
  • This effort evolves into a draft EA for a new Long Term Experimental Plan (LTEP).
  • Draft LTEP documents are presented to TWG at their November 2006 meeting. See documents at the link below:
  • LINK: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/06nov08/index.html
  • Attachment 10a: Assessment of the Estimated Effects of Four Experimental Options on Resources Below Glen Canyon Dam Draft Report dated Oct. 27, 2006; *Attachment 10b: Assessment of the Estimated Effects of Four Experimental Options on Resources Below Glen Canyon Dam Executive Summary;
  • Attachment 10c: Assessment of the Estimated Effects of Four Experimental Options on Resources Below Glen Canyon Dam PPT;
  • Attachment 10d: A Review of the Western Area Power Administration Report on "Economic Analysis of Power System Impacts of GCD Long-Term Experimental Options"; *Attachment 10e: A Brief Introduction to SLCA/IP Rate Setting and CRSP Basin Fund Liquidity PPT; Attachment 10f: A Review of the GCMRC Report on an "Analysis of Biophysical and Socio-Cultural Impacts of Four Experimental Options

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  • 2007 –GCMRC, in collaboration with the TWG, organizes and hosts an “Information Needs Workshop”.
  • The purpose of this workshop is to confirm, or if necessary, revise, key information needs (INs) previously identified in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) Strategic Plan (2001), in anticipation of using these INs to guide future research and monitoring.
  • The workshop participants suggest several revisions to previously identified INs for hydropower and recreation.
  • This recommendation leads to a decision to host a more complete and formal review of GCDAMP socioeconomic information needs.
  • A brief summary of the IN workshop is at: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/07oct02/Attach_03d.pdf
  • (A written report on the IN workshop is also available and can be provided by GCMRC.)

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  • 2008-2009 - As an outgrowth of discussions by TWG and AMWG following the April 2007 workshop, GCMRC works with stakeholders (NPS and Western) and the Science Advisors (Dr. Garrett) to organize a comprehensive review of past socioeconomic research and assess stakeholder needs for future socioeconomic information. A prospectus for this workshop is presented to AMWG at their August 2009 meeting:

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/09aug12/Attach_08i.pdf

2009, December - GCMRC hosts a workshop and independent review of the GCDAMP socioeconomics program. An independent panel consisting of 4 outside economists is convened to hear a series presentations (by many of the researchers who previously conducted socioeconomic studies for GCES and GCMRC), listen to TWG members discuss their needs for economic information, and formulate a plan for addressing these information needs over the next 5-10 years. Two documents result from this workshop: 1) a summary of the facilitated discussion about GCDAMP socioeconomic information needs, and 2) a report from the independent panel with recommendations on how to address the needs over a 5 and 10 year time frame: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/10feb03/Attach_16.pdf http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/10mar15/Attach_03b.pdf http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/10mar15/index.html - Attachment 3a: Partial Workshop Report Including Polling Results of the GCMRC TWG Socioeconomic Workshop; Attachment 3b: Final Report of the GCMRC Socioeconomic Research Review Panel; Attachment 3c: Socioeconomic Workshop: Final Report and Next Steps PPT

2010, February – Fairley makes a presentation to AMWG about the December workshop at their February 2010 AMWG meeting. The final report by the expert panel is not yet available at this time, so AMWG requests that TWG review the report when it becomes available and bring recommendations back to AMWG at their next meeting. In response to this direction, TWG forms a new committee, the Socioeconomic Ad Hoc Group (a.k.a., the SEAHG).

2010, August – Dr. Michael Hanemann, a member of the December 2009 independent panel, makes a presentation to the Adaptive Management Working Group at their August 2010 meeting: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/10aug24/Attach_02a.pdf Shane Capron, TWG chair, follows with a summary of the TWG’s initial review of the panel’s report:http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/10aug24/Attach_02a.pdf In response to the above presentations, AMWG concurs with a recommendation from the TWG Chair and requests that the panel’s report be reviewed in more detail by the TWG and that recommendations be brought back to AMWG regarding how to proceed with implementing the panel’s recommendations. AMWG passes the following motion:

“The AMWG supports implementation of studies to further our understanding of the socioeconomics of adaptive management decisions within the AMP; this includes market, non-market, and non-use studies. Thus, the AMWG directs TWG to further develop an economics implementation plan to be provided to the AMWG at its next meeting for possible implementation starting in FY2012. That implementation plan will include the following components: a. Information needs associated with each study or analysis and the prioritization of those needs, b. Scope and costs associated with each project and potential funding sources, c. A description of how the information would be useful to the program, and d. A more thorough review of the economic panel report.”

2010 (fall)-2011 (winter-spring) – The SEAHG meets numerous times during the ensuing 6 months to develop recommendations for a future socioeconomic program. Several SEAHG proposals deviate from those of the independent panel. For example, instead of tackling multiple socioeconomic topics simultaneously as recommended by the panel, SEAHG proposes to take a more linear approach, starting with an evaluation of market- based recreation and hydropower use values and then preceding to non-market use and non-use studies at a future date. Several of the original recommendations from the panel’s report are carried forward by SEAHG, such as the need for GCMRC to hire a full-time economist. There is also considerable discussion about how best to engage stakeholders who lack background in economics in the TWG’s planning effort. SEAHG requests that GCMRC host an “Economics 101” workshop to provide stakeholders with a basic understanding of economic methods, theory and terminology so that they can engage more effectively in the process: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/10nov15/index.html Attachment 8a: Final Report of the GCMRC Socioeconomic Research Review Panel: Attachment 8b: Socioeconomics Plan FY2011 PPT; Attachment 8c: Economics 101 Course Recommendations; Attachment 8d: Table 1. Socioeconomics Projects Identified in the February 2010 Expert Panel Report; Attachment 8e: Comments on Socio Econ Workshop Report

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/11jan20/index.html Attachment 7a: Tables 1 and 2; Attachment 7b: Final Revision Accomplished PPT; Attachment 7c: Table 3 Revisions

February 2011 - The TWG Chair, Shane Capron, presents a progress report to the AMWG at their February, 2011 meeting and notes that additional refinement of the SEAHG plan and recommendations is still needed: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/11feb09/Attach_07a.pdf http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/11feb09/Attach_07b.pdf

2011, March –GCMRC hosts the “Economics 101” workshop to educated stakeholders about basic economic terms, theory, methods, and topics relevant to the GCDAMP.

2011, March – SEAHG continues to refine a plan for a socioeconomics program. Presentations are made to the TWG about this plan at their March 8, 2011 meeting. At this same meeting, NPS informs TWG that NPS is planning to conduct comprehensive economic studies related to visitor use and non-use values for all NPS units located along the Colorado River and its major tributaries, including Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/twg/mtgs/11mar08/index.html Attachment 4a: Table 3 - Socioeconomic Implementation Plan; Attachment 4b: Federal Register Notice Prepared by the National Park Service dated Feb. 8, 2011. Action: Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Information Collection; Colorado River Ecosystem; Attachment 4c: Economic Values of National Park System Resources Within the Colorado River Watershed; Attachment 4d: Economic Values of National Park System Resources Along the Colorado River: A Proposal for Estimating Magnitude and Significance; Attachment 4e: Economic Values of National Park System Resources Within the Colorado River Watershed: Phase II

2011, May – In response to a presentation by the TWG Chair about the proposed NPS economic study and potential ramifications for the plan being developed by SEAHG, AMWG recommends formation of a new committee to specifically examine the NPS study plan and determine if and how it could be modified to address information needs of the GCDAMP. This leads to formation of a new ad hoc committee, the Survey Instrument Ad Hoc Committee (SIAHG).

2011, August - The SIAHG’s report is delivered to AMWG at their August 2011 meeting: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/11aug24/Attach_13a.pdf NPS responds the SIAHG report and to the AMWG with the following reply: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/11aug24/Attach_13b.pdf

2011, Summer – GCMRC hosts a second “Knowledge Assessment Workshop” (KAW). Unlike the 2005 KAW, which was held over the course of three days and addressed all flow-affected resources simultaneously, the 2011 KAW involves a series of separate, resource-specific workshops that take place over several months. The KAW for hydropower occurrs on September 1, following an independent review of the GTMax model (see below). A complete record of the hydropower workshop, including power point presentations and discussions, is available upon request from GCMRC. Topics discussed during the KAW included several unpublished reports produced in 2010 and 2011 by Argonne National Laboratories on behalf of Western (these reports were produced independently of the GCDAMP). A presentation by Western about one of these reports, provided to AMWG in February 2011, is available at the following link: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/11feb09/Attach_11.pdf Reports referenced during the KAW can be accessed and downloaded from Argonne National Laboratory’s Research Library ( http://www.library.anl.gov/Publications/ ): Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam. Veselka, T. D. ; Poch, L. A. ; Palmer, C. S. ; Loftin, S. ; Osiek, B Report/Report Section, ANL/DIS-10-6 ;July 2010 Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005. Veselka, T. D. ; Poch, L. A. ; Palmer, C. S. ; Loftin, S. ; Osiek, B. Report/Report Section ANL/DIS-10-7 ;April 2010 Revised financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005. Veselka, T. D. ; Poch, L. A. ; Palmer, C. S. ; Loftin, S. ; Osiek, B. Report/Report Section, ANL/DIS-11-1 ;January 2011

2011, August-September – On August 31 and September 1, 2011, GCMRC hosts an independent review of the GTMax model. This review is conducted in response to recommendations of the 2009 expert panel and the SEAHG. The SEAHG advocates using the GTMax model for various hydropower-related assessments in the future. The purpose of the review is to explore the strengths and weaknesses of the GTMax model and assess its applicability for the types of analyses being proposed by the SEAHG. A report on the GTMax model review is completed in November 2011 and is released to the AMWG in January 2013. See 2013 entry below for a link to the final report.

2012, February – At the February 2012 AMWG meeting, the SEAHG presents its final plan for socioeconomic studies to the AMWG:: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/12feb22/index.html Attachment 7a: AIF: TWG Chair Part 1Report and PPT; Attachment 7b: Recommended Information Needs and Program Elements for a Proposed Socioeconomic Program as Approved by the AMWG on Feb. 23, 2012; Attachment 7c: Socioeconomics Ad Hoc Group Report and PPT;

The presentations listed above generate considerable discussion among the AMWG members. See the final February 22-23, 2012 AMWG minutes for a synopsis of these discussions: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/12feb22/Final_Mins.pdf After extensive discussion, the AMWG passes the following motion on February 23:

“The AMWG requests the Secretary’s Designee to transmit the revised SEAHG report to the Secretary and advise him that the AMWG supports implementation of socioeconomic impact assessment studies to further our understanding of adaptive management decisions within the GCDAMP. The AMWG requests that the Secretary advise the AMWG regarding those elements of the proposed socioeconomic implementation plan that will be developed within the LTEMP development process. The AMWG directs the Technical Work Group to identify information needs and research priorities not addressed through the LTEMP process so that GCMRC can refine and develop a work plan.”

2012, April - The Secretary of Interior responds to the AMWG by directing the lead agencies for the LTEMP EIS (NPS and Reclamation) to inform the AMWG about the socioeconomic studies that will be undertaken as part of the LTEMP EIS process: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/12may10/Attach_01.pdf

2012, August - NPS and Reclamation provide the following response to AMWG: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/mtgs/12aug29/Attach_07b.pdf

2013 - After extensive internal review by DOI and DOE leadership, as well as by the stakeholders and Argonne National Laboratory personnel involved in the August 31-September 1, 2011 GTMax model review workshop, the final report on the GTMax model review is released to GCDAMP stakeholders via email in January, 2013. Accompanying the report from the independent panel are written comments from several workshop participants. A written response to these comments from the panel is released to the AMWG in July, 2013. These documents can be found at: http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/GTMax.html

August 12, 2013 – GCMRC’s first full-time economist, Lucas Bair, arrives at GCMRC.

A comprehensive bibliography of socioeconomic studies related to Glen Canyon Dam, including unpublished reports and published journal articles, is maintained and regularly updated by Dr. David Harpman, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation economist. This resource can be accessed at: http://mysite.du.edu/~dharpman/GCG_LIT_05-08-2012.pdf

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